Analyze The Overtime Markets – Volume In Recent Weeks

Source : Twitter

Throughout this article, we aim to analyze the total volume on Overtime Markets over the past two weeks. Which games had the most activity, both in terms of total users and dollar volume? On a daily basis, which sports receive the most bets in terms of total dollar volume? Describe any interesting data findings.

What is Thales?How does it Works?

The Thales protocol is an Ethereum-based peer-to-peer parimutuel market protocol, which is open to all participants. Building blocks like this are the foundation of a number of novel on-chain initiatives, including positional market platforms based on AMMs, gamified experiences, and much more. With Thales, users have access to uncensorable sUSD as collateral, immutable chainlink data feeds for market settlement, and all the benefits of an Optimism-centric network, such as speed, costs, and security.

How Do Overtime Markets Work?

Ultimately, Overtime Markets is the first permissionless AMM based on the Thales Protocol. Thales Protocol is an elegant and novel core design on which Overtime Markets is built.  On the Optimism network, Thales protocol is currently operating. As a fully on-chain sports AMM, Overtime markets offers Chainlink sport feeds that allow users to bet on Soccer, Football, MMA, and Baseball. The Thales markets have generated millions of dollars in volume through their immutable smart contracts, which are completely decentralized and  controlled.Through Overtime, communities can trade sports without relying on centralized entities for exchange of goods and services.  There are four stablecoins supported by Overtime: sUSD, USDT, USDC, and DAI.

With Overtime, you are not only bringing the game to blockchain, you are doing so with some of the best odds available across all sportsbooks, not just cryptocurrency ones. This odds are provided by Pinnacle Sportsbook, a highly regarded bookmaker that has a customer base in over 100 countries. In 1998, Pinnacle was founded and is considered one of the most reputable sportsbooks on the internet.By using Chainlink data feeds, Overtime receives these odds in real-time and uses them to price their positional tokens for each market.  There is one update for each game every six hours, except on game days when it is updated hourly.

Approach

This dashboard will explain about ,

  • The Daily Number of Users and Volume for Overtime Markets for the Past Two Weeks
  • Transactions and volume by token for the past two weeks on the Overtime Markets
  • Transactions and volume by sport in Overtime Markets for past two weeks
  • As well as showing each sport’s total volume and transaction for the past two weeks 

Overtime Markets: Users and Volume 

This section displays Overtime Market’s daily users and volume for the past two weeks.  Based on the number of users and volume, the graphs below show Overtime Markets’ performance over the past two weeks.  

A total of 969 users were active between August 11, 2022 and August 25, 2022. The maximum number of users was 136 on August 21, 2022. Initially, there were more than 50 users. There was decrease of less than 50 for a couple of days. Suddenly, from August 19 2022 onward, the number of users almost doubled. There we can see the total users on Aug 23,2022 are lower than normal.

Total transactions between August 11, 2022 and August 25, 2022 were 2.12K.  A maximum of 261 transactions were observed on August 13, 2022, and a minimum of 78 transactions were observed on August 16, 2022.  The number of transactions increased from August 11, 2022 to August 25, 2022.

Overtime’s Odds : In order to price their positional tokens for each market, Overtime receives these odds through Chainlink data feeds on-chain. Dollars of potential profit are priced based on implied win probability instead of percentages. Based on Pinnacle’s data, we can assume that the implied win probability of a Home win is 45% if it has a price of 0.45 per $1 of potential profit. There are different kinds of odds,

  • An implied probability of success expressed as a decimal of one is called a Normalized Implied Odds (NIO). The odds will always add up to 1 in this format when pricing a single positional token (unless no liquidity is available for that position, in which case the odds will display as 0).
  • If a position of 1 dollar is successful, Decimal Odds displays the payoff amount.

As a result of the multiple odds format being enabled on Aug 11th 2022, we can see that the volume has been increasing since Aug 11th and spiking maximum on Aug 14th 2022. From the below tweet we can see ,

The overall volume between August 11, 2022 and August 25, 2022 was 252.52K.  A maximum volume of 70.12K was observed on August 14, 2022, and a minimum volume of 2.01K was observed on August 16, 2022. There is a downward trend in the total volume. August 14, 2022 had a higher total volume than usual.

Overtime Markets: Number Of Transactions And Volume By Token Wise

As we already known , There are four stablecoins supported by Overtime: sUSD, USDT, USDC, and DAI. Here in this section we can see the number of trasactions and the volume made by each stablecoin on Overtime Markets for the past two weeks period. Comparatively most of the Overtime Volume is from sUSD tokens.

Note : sUSD is a Synthetix stablecoin asset with a value that tracks the US dollar. By staking SNX tokens in the staking smart contract, users can mint sUSD tokens. As a result, sUSD tokens can be exchanged on the Synthetix platform for other synthetic assets.

Based on the graph below, we can see the volume of different stablecoins on Overtime Markets for the past two weeks. The total volume from August 11, 2022 to August 25, 2022 was 252.52K.  The token sUSD contributes the most to the total volume out of the 4 tokens. The lowest total Volume is 261.99 (USDT), and the highest is 173.56K (sUSD). There was a maximum volume of 70.12K observed on August 14, 2022, and a minimum volume of 2.01K observed on August 16, 2022. It has been a decreasing trend for the past two weeks in terms of total volume. August 14, 2022 had a higher total volume than usual. 

Here from the below graph we can see daily percentages of different tokens volume for the past 2 weeks . The highest contributor to the total Volume is the Token sUSD (68.73%). In this graph, we see a positive correlation between sUSD volume and USDC volume.

It is calculated that there is a total volume of 252K.  Based on the percentage of total volume contributed by each token, Token sUSD contributes the most (68.73%) to the total volume. A difference of 66,147% is found between the lowest volume at 261.99 (USDT) and the highest volume at 173K (sUSD).

Here from the below graph we can see the number of transactions by token wise on Overtime markets for the past 2 weeks . Between August 11, 2022 and August 25, 2022, 2,183 token transactions took place. Out of the 4 tokens, sUSD contributes the most to total Transactions. The lowest total Transactions are 32 (USDT) and the highest are 1,738 (sUSD). August 13, 2022 recorded the highest number of transactions with 261.

If we look at the daily transaction percentage by token wise , we can see sUSD contributes almost 79% of the total Transactions. The total number of transactions is decreasing trend. A majority of USDC and sUSD transactions declined. There were almost more than 90% of USDC transactions that trended downward.  

 Out of the 4 tokens, sUSD contributes the more than 79% of total Transactions. In Overtime Markets, sUSD currency has had the most transactions, followed by USDC currency in second place. 

Overtime Markets: Number Of Transactions And Volume By Sport

Here in this section , we can see the number of transactions and volume by sport on Overtime markets for the past 2 weeks period. Between August 11, 2022 and August 25, 2022, total volume by sports was 252.52K. More than 80% of the total volume came from the top 3 sports (MLB, EPL, and NFL).  There is a low total Volume of 3.63K (MLS), and a high total Volume of 153.09K (MLB). The maximum Volume of 70.12K was observed on August 14, 2022, and the minimum Volume of 2.01K was observed on August 16, 2022. There is a decreasing trend in total volume. The total volume in August 14, 2022 is higher than normal. In comparison with the first week, 5 sports saw declines in volume, with the EPL dropping the most at more than 99%.

From the below graph we can see the percentage of daily volume by sports oin Overtime market for the past 2 weeks .  In comparison with the first week, 5 sports saw declines in volume, with the EPL dropping the most at more than 99%.

As can be seen from the below graph, the Top 3 Sports Baseball, English Premier League, and NFL accounted for 80.24% of total volume out of all games. Volumes are lowest in the Major League Soccer (MLS) and highest in the Major League Baseball (MLB). In comparison with Major League Soccer, MLB generates almost 40 times more volume.As you can see, the EPL generates the second highest amount of volume. In the following order is Serie A.

From the below graph we can see the percentage of volume by sport for the past 2 weeks . Here in this graph we can see more than half (60%) of the total volume is contributed by MLB. According to this information, MLB receives the most bets in total dollar volume compared to other sports. A comparison between MLS and other sports also shows that MLS receives the least amount of bets on a daily basis.

From August 11, 2022 to August 25, 2022, there were 2,183 Total Transactions on Overtime markets.  In terms of total transactions, MLB Sports contributed 40.72% and Top 2 Sports contributed 61.61%. The lowest number of transactions is 94 (Ligue 1) and the highest number is 889 (MLB). The maximum number of transactions was 261 on August 13, 2022. The multiple odds format will be enabled on August 11th 2022. THALES and OP will be awarded to traders with negative PnL, so everyone wins. More users may be attracted to make more transactions on Aug 13, 2022 as a result of this.

In the graph below, we can see the maximum number of bets placed with the MLB over the past two weeks. The EPL is followed by the second place. 

40.72% of the total transactions were attributed to MLB Sports, and 61.61% were attributed to the top two sports (MLB and English Premier League). Ligue 1 has the lowest total Transactions with 4.5%, while MLB has the highest with 40.9%.

Observations

From the above analysis,

  • A total volume of 252.52K has been recorded by Overtime Markets in the last two weeks. In August 14th 2022, overtime exceeded 70K in a single day. Though it went down volume-wise again, it is now increasing. As long as things continue like this, by September the volume will definitely exceed 300K.
  • There have been 969 users on Overtime markets in the past two weeks. There was a sudden increase in users that nearly doubled on August 19 2022.
  • Token sUSD contributes almost 68% of the total volume contributed by tokens on Overtime markets. USDT token generates the lowest volume and sUSD token generates the highest volume.
  • By looking at the daily transactions by token, we can see that sUSD contributes almost 79% of them.
  • Transactions by token show a decreasing trend in total number of transactions. USDC and sUSD transactions declined in the majority. Most USDC transactions trended downwards, almost 90%.  
  • Volumes are lowest in the Major League Soccer (MLS) and highest in the Major League Baseball (MLB). Major League Soccer generates almost 40 times more volume than the English Premier League. As you can see, the EPL generates the second highest volume. Serie A is ranked in the following order.
  • Based on this information, MLB receives the most bets in total dollar volume compared to other sports. According to a comparison between MLS and other sports, MLS receives the least amount of daily bets.
  • Based on the above analysis, if we look at the transactions by sport, we can see that August 13, 2022 had the most transactions. August 11th, 2022 will mark the day that multiple odds become available. The THALES and OP will be awarded to traders with negative PnL, so everyone wins. This may attract more users on Aug 13, 2022 to make more transactions.

Reference Query:

with ctrs as (
select
     ADDRESS,
    SYMBOL,
    DECIMALS
  from
    optimism.core.dim_contracts
  where
    ADDRESS in (
      '0x7f5c764cbc14f9669b88837ca1490cca17c31607',
      '0x8c6f28f2f1a3c87f0f938b96d27520d9751ec8d9',
      '0xda10009cbd5d07dd0cecc66161fc93d7c9000da1',
      '0x94b008aa00579c1307b0ef2c499ad98a8ce58e58'
    )
),
tags as ( -- https://github.com/thales-markets/contracts/blob/67d12f1c549026ff6a8d1fdaac832ff427a17573/scripts/deployExoticMarkets/deploy_ExoticTags.js
  SELECT 'Sport' AS label, '1'as tag UNION 
SELECT 'Crypto' AS label, '2'as tag UNION 
SELECT 'Politics' AS label, '3'as tag UNION 
SELECT 'Pop-culture' AS label, '4'as tag UNION 
SELECT 'Esports' AS label, '5'as tag UNION 
SELECT 'Football' AS label, '101'as tag UNION 
SELECT 'Basketball' AS label, '102'as tag UNION 
SELECT 'Bitcoin' AS label, '201'as tag UNION 
SELECT 'Ethereum' AS label, '202'as tag UNION 
SELECT 'Finance' AS label, '6'as tag UNION 
SELECT 'TradFi' AS label, '601'as tag UNION 
SELECT 'NCAA Men''s Football' AS label, '9001'as tag UNION 
SELECT 'NFL' AS label, '9002'as tag UNION 
SELECT 'MLB' AS label, '9003'as tag UNION 
SELECT 'NBA' AS label, '9004'as tag UNION 
SELECT 'NCAA Men''s Basketball' AS label, '9005'as tag UNION 
SELECT 'NHL' AS label, '9006'as tag UNION 
SELECT 'WNBA' AS label, '9008'as tag UNION 
SELECT 'MLS' AS label, '9010'as tag UNION 
SELECT 'EPL' AS label, '9011'as tag UNION 
SELECT 'Ligue 1' AS label, '9012'as tag UNION 
SELECT 'Bundesliga' AS label, '9013'as tag UNION 
SELECT 'La Liga' AS label, '9014'as tag UNION 
SELECT 'Serie A' AS label, '9015'as tag UNION 
SELECT 'UEFA Champions League' AS label, '9016'as tag  
)
game_tags as (
  select 
  	label as sport,
  	game_address,
  	tag,
  	game_name
  from games INNER JOIN tags using (tag)
),
txns as (
  	SELECT 
  		block_timestamp,
  		tx_hash,
  		origin_from_address as player,
  		RAW_AMOUNT / pow(10, DECIMALS) as amount_bet,
  		SYMBOL,
 		concat('0x', substr(regexp_substr_all(SUBSTR(input_data, 11, len(input_data)), '.{64}')[0], 25, 40)) AS game_address,
  		Sport,
  		game_name
  	FROM  optimism.core.fact_token_transfers trnf
  	INNER JOIN ctrs ON trnf.contract_address = ctrs.address
  	INNER JOIN optimism.core.fact_transactions as txn using (tx_hash)
  	INNER JOIN game_tags ON game_tags.game_address = concat('0x', substr(regexp_substr_all(SUBSTR(input_data, 11, len(input_data)), '.{64}')[0], 25, 40))
  	WHERE origin_from_address = from_address
  	and ORIGIN_TO_ADDRESS = '0x170a5714112daeff20e798b6e92e25b86ea603c1'
  	and block_timestamp >= CURRENT_DATE - {{days_ago}}
)
SELECT 
  	date_trunc(day, block_timestamp) as date, 
  	count(distinct player) as players,
  	count(distinct tx_hash) as transactions,
  	count(distinct sport) as sports, 
  	count(distinct game_name) as games,
  	sum(amount_bet) as volume_usd
FROM txns 
GROUP BY date

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